He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Vance. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. I dont watch TV. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. It will cycle through. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Bremer County, Iowa I think it worked out without me.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. This claim is basically absurd. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. "If. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. People need to get a job, get out and work. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. They run the gamut from. About The Author. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Jim Hoft. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . A lot of people think things are. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance.
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